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The danger of uncertainty – How the economy and Autumn Budget may be holding back investment


With UK growth slowing to just 0.3 per cent in Q2, business confidence is fragile.

Momentum has faded after a surge in exports ahead of new tariffs earlier this year, while weaker consumer confidence and persistently high household savings add to the uncertainty.

The upcoming Autumn Budget is amplifying concerns with the expectation that the Chancellor will revisit a range of tax-raising measures to manage a potential £50 billion shortfall.

For businesses, this makes planning investment, recruitment and payroll increasingly challenging.

What might be on the table?

Recent reports suggest the Autumn Budget could bring a range of tax changes:

  • Inheritance Tax (IHT) may be reformed, with reliefs on gifts scrapped and adjustments to the residence nil-rate band.
  • Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates could be aligned with Income Tax, potentially extending to high-value homes in a “mansion tax” style levy.
  • The VAT threshold might be lowered to £30,000, bringing more small businesses into scope.
  • Property taxes could be overhauled, with Stamp Duty replaced by a levy on higher-value homes.
  • Pensions may face limits on tax-free lump sums.

Of course, all of these are speculative, but it is that uncertainty that has the capability to hold back investment.

How you can respond to change

The uncertainty is already affecting recruitment intentions, with more businesses relying on temporary or flexible contracts rather than investing in new, permanent staff.

Consumers are saving more and spending less due to caution around potential tax rises, which is hitting revenues in consumer-facing industries.

Major investment decisions are also being delayed until after the Budget in anticipation of more change.

However, even amid uncertainty, you can take steps to reduce risk:

  • Plan for different tax scenarios, including higher employer costs or property and CGT changes.
  • Review payroll and benefits to stay compliant and competitive.
  • Streamline processes with technology to boost efficiency.
  • Utilise short-term hiring options, while planning for long-term workforce needs.

Uncertainty does not have to stall growth! Contact our advisers today for tailored support and strategies to keep your business moving forward.

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